US Fukushima ... Almost

From Wikipedia - New Madrid Quake in 1895

So we see in this WSJ article that the North Anna nuclear plant in Virgina shut down during the 5.8 earthquake on this last Tuesday.

Then we see in this follow up article that the shaking in the quake exceeded the plant's rating for earthquakes.

In March I wrote "US Nukes and US Geological Faults."

Interestingly enough the quake, centered near Richmond Virginia, was not even near a fault listed on the USGS map.

So what does this say?

Well, for one thing that no one really has any clue about what might happen in the US as far as nukes and, say, earthquakes, are concerned.  Events that are "not even on the map" would appear to be just as likely as anything else.

And though during the time of Fukushima we have assurances from the US nuclear regulator that we need not worry it would seem that in fact they have no good idea what they are talking about.

Consider the "Missouri" new-Madrid earthquakes of 1812-1811 (see this in Wikipedia).  These were about twenty times stronger (at 7.2 - 8.0 as compared to 5.8 for Virginia on Tuesday) and affected a very large area.  (Ten times stronger than the one pictured at the top of the post.)

The bottom line is that a quake like new Madrid is going to create serious damage - and in particular create Fukushima-like scenarios for us here in the US.

The regulators can whine and moan all they want but A) predicting a "big one" like new-Madrid is unlikely and B) a new-Madrid event will cause another Fukushima.

For me Tuesday's earthquake was a first.  I was sitting alone upstairs - Mrs. Wolf having just left to go to an appointment.  Suddenly I felt the floor moving and heard the steps creaking as if someone very heavy (probably 500 pounds worth or so) was coming up the steps (I heard three steps).

The dogs, asleep by my side, did not move or bark.  The couch I was sitting on moved back and forth. At first I assumed Mrs. Wolf had somehow returned early from her appointment and avoided disturbing the dogs. 

But Mrs. Wolf does not weight 500 pounds.

I live in a very solid house - one Mrs. Wolf and I designed and solidly built by my good friend - sixty mile per hour winds do not make it creak nor do they make the floor move - and moving a Hammond C3 up the same stairs a few years back did not make the floor move as much.

I jumped up and looked down the stairs - the gate was still closed so no large dogs (we have one that does sneak up the stairs from time to time) could have come up the stairs, and no Mrs. Wolf.

Short of ghosts, I reasoned, it must have been an earthquake, and sure enough, Facebook friends from many miles around confirmed they had felt the same thing.

I live about a six hour drive from the epicenter - or about 300 miles.  I would venture that the house and I moved back and forth at least a 1/2 inch during the shaking.

A magnitude 6 quake would have multiplied that by 10 - 5 inches - probably enough to do a lot of damage. 

A new-Mardrid quake at magnitude 7 - 10 inches of shaking.

I probably would not be alive to tell this story or write this blog entry.

Similarly - most nearby nukes would be in a similar state to Fukushima.

Just thank God that the US nuclear regulatory bodies and private industry don't have to worry about any of this and can happily build their plants where ever its convenient.  Most plants were approved twenty or more years ago so there will be no one to blame but ourselves should their be a problem.

I know I can sleep easily knowing all this... can you?