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Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Coronavirus: Bifurcating Pneumonia

Bifurcation: nounthe division of something into two branches or parts

While you weren't looking the "corona virus" bifurcated into both "corona virus" and COVID19.

Long before what we see today, let's say 2012, some peer-reviewed virology dudes (see https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/) described the "corona virus" as "... associated with upper respiratory tract infections that occasionally spread to the lungs and other organs."

According to WHO there is a disease: coronavirus disease or COVID-19 which is caused by a virus: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

SARS-Cov is defined by the CDC as "Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus called SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). SARS was first reported in Asia in February 2003. The illness spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak of 2003 was contained.

Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world. The content in this website was developed for the 2003 SARS epidemic. But some guidelines are still being used. Any new SARS updates will be posted on this website."

As for SARS-Cov-2, it's the virus that causes COVID-19. 

The best definition of COVID-19 I could find is https://www.goodrx.com/blog/what-does-covid-19-mean-who-named-it/.  From this site:  "Coronaviruses are common human and animal viruses. They were first discovered in domestic poultry in the 1930s. In animals, coronaviruses cause a range of respiratory, gastrointestinal, liver, and neurologic diseases. 

Only seven coronaviruses are known to cause disease in humans:
  • Four human coronaviruses cause symptoms of the “common cold.” These have catchy names which you’ll be forgiven for forgetting: 229E, OC43, NL63, and HUK1.
  • Three human coronaviruses cause much more serious lung infections, also called pneumonia: SARS-CoV in 2002 (severe acute respiratory syndrome or “SARS”), MERS-CoV in 2012 (Middle East respiratory syndrome or “MERS”), and SARS-CoV2 (the current pandemic know as COVID-19). .
The SARS family is, according to https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095418/, a "viral induced pneumonia."

But, according to https://www.webmd.com/lung/viral-pneumonia#1 the "common cold" and "the flu" can cause it as well.

There is a long history of flu (clearly caused by corona virus) and pneumonia.  For example https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3827586/ looks at the last fifty or so years and concludes "Over the 51-year span, influenza has seen a decline in use on the death certificate. Years in which influenza is in the medical news are exceptions to this trend, with the 1975–76 “swine flu” scare on record as the highest proportion I/(P+I).

So popularity in the news is a big driver of "cause of death."

Hmmmm....

SO on the one hand we have the common corona virus causes numerous maladies including viral pneumonia.


But wait, that's just viral pneumonia...?

I think there's a lot of ambiguity here.

A lot...

Then there's the corona virus fatality rate AND the COVID-19 fatality rate (see, bifurcation from https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age):




Which really kind of shows the same thing, though perhaps worse...?

Getting viral pneumonia is bad, and if you are old it very well may kill you.

The real question is are we seeing something unique, new or different?

Or have we just plucked some intermediate data out of the middle of something that happens all the time and focused on it...?

Something deadly like Ebola is very different in how it affects people (from https://www.biointeractive.org/sites/default/files/Ebola-Educator-DP.pdf):


Destroying peoples livelihood is perhaps warranted with Ebola.  It's demographics are far different than viral pneumonia.  


Healthcare workers represent 10%-20% of all corona virus cases.

Note here "corona virus" - not COVID-19...

Obviously the preventative measures (and the wonders of medical science) don't work well.

Note too very few in proportion die.

Very, very few...

Something doesn't smell right here...

And what about the tests for "corona virus?"

Here they were stopped early on.

Yet cases continue to grow, balloon even, at least in the US.

Good old CNN spills the beans: "There has been concern that some of the tests might confuse the coronavirus causing the current pandemic with one of several coronaviruses that cause the common cold."

And further down:

"Third, it's not entirely clear that having antibodies to Covid-19 means that you truly have immunity and won't get the disease again.
"That's the $64 question," said Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of the NAS committee, who was also on the phone call with the White House. "Does antibody level equate to resistance to getting ill again?"

Ever get two colds during your life?  During the year?

Are you immune?
We all know how well Bill Gates was able to prevent viruses on Microsoft Windows.


And here it would seem we are spending some $27 Billion out of the $2 Trillion aid package to cure the incurable corona virus common cold.

None of this smells right....

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