VAERS: Truth Hiding In Plain Sight

Looking at the raw VAERS data we see something different in 2021:

When analysis of data is required it's always import to step back and take a hard look at the full scenario, i.e., don't just dive in with hatches tied to your hands and feet, but rather assess the bigger picture...

NOTE: I have done this sort of data analysis professionally for many years.  I am not a "health care" expert but I am familiar with data.

Two things jump out before even opening the VAERS data set:

1. A more than full order of magnitude jump from 2020 to 2021 (and yes, ZIP file size is a more than adequate stand in for actual record counts as you will see).
   
   
2. Two other jumps that may be significant: 2014-2015 and 2017-2018.

In many ways #2 above may be more interesting than #1 because "nothing of note" childhood MMR etc-wise seems to have happened in the US.  Not to say it didn't, but nothing appeared in the "media." I have written about this before a decade ago relative to actual vaccinations (not mRNA injectables - see: Coronavirus: Magical Thinking, Fauci Loves Hillary from 2020 and the original Flu Shots and Magical Thinking for 2010 - yes, that's me in the photo).

But on to the biggest jump...

Sources of data for this post:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/datasets.html -- Full data set

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-supply-historical.htm

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total

So I downloaded the 2021 data set (not really .zip files apparently but Keka could process them) and the "full" data set (as of last week).

Using dbeaver and SQL I constructed one set of tables corresponding to the .CSV files for 2021 and one set of tables combining 2010-2020.

My thought was prior to 2021 there was more or less a steady state in the VAERS world so the big lump of data represented by these years would serve as a counterbalance to 2021.  Yes, there was some change, but clearly not at the full order of magnitude seen in 2020 to 2021.

NOTE: This is just preliminary analysis.  At least theoretically some huge, unexplained by the obvious jump could have contributed to 2021 - seems unlikely but something to think about.

I am going to guess about 500 million mRNA injectables for 2020 for this post - close enough for what we are going to look at - but yes, a guess.

So first thing: There are lots and lots of entries for 2021 and, corresponding to each entry between one and five symptoms.  (This seems hokey but it's CSV.  Maybe an ACCESS database living behind it, but who really knows...)

I spent a couple of hours loading the data into a Postgresql database and then wrote a series of queries to convert the five symptom columns into a single column with a count: one for 2021 and a consolidated one for the prior eleven years (2010-2020).

This tells us nothing about the people, what symptoms individuals had, what their specific case was, and so on.  Jessica Rose over on substack has been looking inside.

I was more interested in the general relationship between the data files and the flu (again, refer to the Magical Thinking blog posts for more details).  

The CDC doesn't have 2020/2021 flu data on its site yet so I set those to zero.  I estimated the total number of actual vaccines given per year and concluded that the proportions would be similar.  Thus flu vaccines from the CDC website are the standing.  I also came up with this chart (apologies for the graphical layout - this site isn't great with large images):

What this says to me is that, over time, more actual vaccines are being given (makes sense that the more retired baby boomers there are the more people are getting flu shots) and that each year actual flu cases fluctuate wildly.  This corresponds to the the old Magical Thinking post so this is what I would have expected.

Now we enter the time of mRNA injectables (kind of like edibles I suppose...).

So our "vaccine" count jumps up by about 3x yet our VAERS data increases by more than an order of magnitude. The MMR world, probably around the ten million for each of the CDC recommend vaccines is mostly constant and noise level here (I might be wrong) relative to 2021.

Hmmm.....

Intrigued by this I turned to the symptom data.  Again, this says nothing about people, only what those entering VAERS have done in terms of data entry.

So the first question is this (and not all answered here): What can we say about the nature of the symptom data from the eleven years prior to 2021 compared to 2021?

So the goal of this chart is to relate 2021 with the previous eleven years in terms of raw symptom report counts.  This chart only selects 2021 symptoms that have ten times (10x) or more entries than the entire prior eleven years combined.

So this is kind of interesting... Yellow is the 2021 symptom count, maroon is the average over eleven years and blue is the actual eleven year count.  To simplify think of yellow as 2021 and blue, if you can see it at all, as the comparative value in VAERs for that symptom over the prior eleven years.

There are many thousands of symptoms - this is only the first 80 or so that occur more than ten times the same symptom reported over the prior eleven years (yes I am saying it again).

Several things jump out regarding FDA "symptoms."  Many are not symptoms at all: "Cardiac Stress Test" for example.  So what does that mean?  Did the person being reported on get a stress test? Did they pass or fail? And so on.

These symptom codes come from here: https://www.meddra.org/.  But by themselves its hard to tell what happened.  Yes, there is SYMPTOM_TEXT, but that does not always make things clear either.  Some entries are in the first person: "I experienced X..." others were entered by some kind of medical professional.

You can't always tell what happened or what the outcome was.  Perhaps you'd even have to visit the person and ask to get a clear picture.  Then again, maybe not.

For an agency as large as the FDA you'd think they'd do better...

I also turned this around and asked what symptoms in the last eleven years occurred at a rate of more than an order of magnitude as compared to 2021.  The results were interesting:

The key remains the same but now blue dominates.  The "flavor" is what you'd expect with kid vaccines, not mRNA injectables.

So far we have only talked about data.

So to close I chose two words to search on in the symptom columns to look at the 2021 data versus the last eleven years: "ardiac" for both "Cardiac" and "cardiac" and "ombosis" for all manner of capitalized and uncapitalized "thrombosis."  These are general words which, when people hear from a doctor, seem to cause concern.

For the next two charts the scale along the bottom is logrithmic in order to make them a bit easer to read.

First "ardiac":

And then "ombosis":

"feotal cardiac arrest" kind of jumps out...

Oh wait, nothing to see here...