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Saturday, April 18, 2020

Coronavirus: Bankrupting Pennsylvania

This 1999 movie Fight Club movie scene tells the future: "Do not fuck with us..."


Remember Fight Club?



Tyler Durden: "God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off."

You probably don't - you have an education, you don't clean sewers or fix broken equipment.  You went to school to be better than the rest...

---- Fast Cut: ----

The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is bankrupt (https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/lawmaker-pa-might-have-to-borrow-5-billion-to-stay-afloat-in-coronavirus-crisis/article_62167b0a-75e1-11ea-87dd-cbe49b0418d4.html):

"Despite billions of dollars for states in the federal stimulus package approved by Congress last month, and another stimulus measure potentially in the works, Republican state Rep. Frank Ryan said the state must do more to prepare for the economy and the state’s financial situation to worsen.   

State tax revenues are spiraling downward as record numbers of workers are laid off and businesses shuttered. It’s gotten so bad that Gov. Tom Wolf told 9,000 state workers their paychecks will be withheld by the end of next week.

The need to balance the budget may prompt the state to borrow more as it faces a revenue deficit that could range from $3 billion to $6 billion, depending on the duration of the downturn, said Ryan, of Lebanon County. That’s between 8 percent and 16 percent of the state budget.

...

House Appropriations Chairman Stan Saylor, a York County Republican, in a letter to GOP lawmakers this week said states are “facing the potential for some of the largest revenue drops in modern history.” 

He said the state may face a recession.

...

If the virus continues unabated for months, off-the-charts unemployment rates will deplete state revenues and Pennsylvania state government will face the prospect of cutting programs and potentially massive layoffs."

On April 13th the "northeast governors" of the bank-corupt states got together to form a working group on Covid19.

(Secret: They are all in debt up to their eyeballs and need federal bailouts to make them even pretend to be solvent...)

Coincidently (use the Secret knowledge above) the death tolls jumped the next day (to sample just a few participants, red line on 4/13):


Must be just a coincidence right?

Sure it is...

Just like letting everyone go to Walmart, Home Depot, and the rest is okay - they can socialize there - but not anywhere else...?

Hmmm...

How did Pennsylvania get into this situation?


I guess the buck stops with old Tom Wolf (shown here not wearing his mask, but you should must).

Looks like the PA Unemployment fund is in danger too... 

(see: https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/can-pa-handle-the-crush-of-unemployed-underinsured-and-impoverished-in-covid-19-crisis/article_4d5bdf34-6ed9-11ea-a679-93f88796270c.html having just recovered from the last crisis).

But you feel good.  He's a pot guy and we got our pot...  and billions in debt.

New Jersey will probably end up in the same boat too (see https://www.njspotlight.com/2020/03/nj-can-tap-2-4b-pool-for-jobless-benefits-if-covid-19-sparks-recession/) - the article linked was written about a month ago.  They have proportionally less money and fewer people than PA.

Trillions more will flow out from the Federal Government.

From where, the check printing machines, of course.  During the 2008 downturn I distinctly recall (and may have even blogged about it) the fact that there was no process to stop printing government checks.

(NJ, BTW - Looking for COBOL programmers to shore up their state-of-the-art data processing center - psst: Don't tell them your phone has more computer horse power):



Clearly the Fed merely waves its magic wand, buys up the new USA debt, and boom, the bank accounts have money (just mount another 9-track spinning tape...)

So if there's, let's say, $200 trillion floating around, and you borrow $2 trillion more, everyone's dollar just diminished in value by 1%. 

This has been going on since 1972 so its little wonder a 1972 dollar buys about ten times more.

And what about all the part time workers?

They are just shoved off into no man's land.  No safety net, no job, no job prospects, nothing.

They can't work.

They also can't spend money, thus generating sales taxes for the state.

So the states, with their lock downs, have crushed probably one part timer for every new unemployment claim.

Here's a sample (from https://www.phillyvoice.com/pennsylvania-new-jersey-unemployment-claims-benefits-coronavirus-covid-19/):


Probably two million in PA out of work, not generating sales taxes, gas taxes, etc. etc. to fill the coffers.

So while you sit safely in your Covid-blocked house, wearing your comfy Covid19 mask, luxuriating in your rolls of toilet paper, remember: you are special.  You didn't have to fire or layoff your employees on a moments notice.  You didn't have to destroy their future, their life, their family.  You didn't have to give them food and drink because they had none.  You don't have to give them hope. 

No, you were safe and happy...

Or are you?

Or are you just afraid?

Afraid the real people see you and what you've done.

To the people.

To the state.

To the country.

But you're safe...

---- Fast Cut: ----

This 1999 movie Fight Club movie scene tells the future. 

"Do not fuck with us..."



Million upon millions of unemployed:

"No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives.

...

And we're very, very pissed off."

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Coronavirus: Epic Swedish Michigan Fail

I wrote this on April 1, 2020: https://lwgat.blogspot.com/2020/04/coronavirus-swedens-nearly-twice-us.html

So how's Sweden doing?

A damn site better than the state of Michigan here in the US:

https://www.facebook.com/TuckerCarlsonTonight/videos/1125126534501239/

Here's the numbers from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries:

The stats tell it all.

Sweden and Michigan each have about 10 million people.

Sweden doesn't do much of anything other than expect common sense for the Corona Virus.

Michigan, on the other hand, is piloted by an absolute idiot.

There is no power on earth more powerful than stupidity...

In Michigan you can't go anywhere, do anything, nothing...

May as well be a Jew in Nazi Germany in the late1930's.


No grass seed, no paint, no plants...

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-jobs-are-exempt-michigan-coronavirus-lockdown-you-may-be-surprised

I bet the Swede's are all laughing at US.


Coronavirus: Bifurcating Pneumonia

Bifurcation: nounthe division of something into two branches or parts

While you weren't looking the "corona virus" bifurcated into both "corona virus" and COVID19.

Long before what we see today, let's say 2012, some peer-reviewed virology dudes (see https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/) described the "corona virus" as "... associated with upper respiratory tract infections that occasionally spread to the lungs and other organs."

According to WHO there is a disease: coronavirus disease or COVID-19 which is caused by a virus: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

SARS-Cov is defined by the CDC as "Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus called SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). SARS was first reported in Asia in February 2003. The illness spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak of 2003 was contained.

Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world. The content in this website was developed for the 2003 SARS epidemic. But some guidelines are still being used. Any new SARS updates will be posted on this website."

As for SARS-Cov-2, it's the virus that causes COVID-19. 

The best definition of COVID-19 I could find is https://www.goodrx.com/blog/what-does-covid-19-mean-who-named-it/.  From this site:  "Coronaviruses are common human and animal viruses. They were first discovered in domestic poultry in the 1930s. In animals, coronaviruses cause a range of respiratory, gastrointestinal, liver, and neurologic diseases. 

Only seven coronaviruses are known to cause disease in humans:
  • Four human coronaviruses cause symptoms of the “common cold.” These have catchy names which you’ll be forgiven for forgetting: 229E, OC43, NL63, and HUK1.
  • Three human coronaviruses cause much more serious lung infections, also called pneumonia: SARS-CoV in 2002 (severe acute respiratory syndrome or “SARS”), MERS-CoV in 2012 (Middle East respiratory syndrome or “MERS”), and SARS-CoV2 (the current pandemic know as COVID-19). .
The SARS family is, according to https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095418/, a "viral induced pneumonia."

But, according to https://www.webmd.com/lung/viral-pneumonia#1 the "common cold" and "the flu" can cause it as well.

There is a long history of flu (clearly caused by corona virus) and pneumonia.  For example https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3827586/ looks at the last fifty or so years and concludes "Over the 51-year span, influenza has seen a decline in use on the death certificate. Years in which influenza is in the medical news are exceptions to this trend, with the 1975–76 “swine flu” scare on record as the highest proportion I/(P+I).

So popularity in the news is a big driver of "cause of death."

Hmmmm....

SO on the one hand we have the common corona virus causes numerous maladies including viral pneumonia.


But wait, that's just viral pneumonia...?

I think there's a lot of ambiguity here.

A lot...

Then there's the corona virus fatality rate AND the COVID-19 fatality rate (see, bifurcation from https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age):




Which really kind of shows the same thing, though perhaps worse...?

Getting viral pneumonia is bad, and if you are old it very well may kill you.

The real question is are we seeing something unique, new or different?

Or have we just plucked some intermediate data out of the middle of something that happens all the time and focused on it...?

Something deadly like Ebola is very different in how it affects people (from https://www.biointeractive.org/sites/default/files/Ebola-Educator-DP.pdf):


Destroying peoples livelihood is perhaps warranted with Ebola.  It's demographics are far different than viral pneumonia.  


Healthcare workers represent 10%-20% of all corona virus cases.

Note here "corona virus" - not COVID-19...

Obviously the preventative measures (and the wonders of medical science) don't work well.

Note too very few in proportion die.

Very, very few...

Something doesn't smell right here...

And what about the tests for "corona virus?"

Here they were stopped early on.

Yet cases continue to grow, balloon even, at least in the US.

Good old CNN spills the beans: "There has been concern that some of the tests might confuse the coronavirus causing the current pandemic with one of several coronaviruses that cause the common cold."

And further down:

"Third, it's not entirely clear that having antibodies to Covid-19 means that you truly have immunity and won't get the disease again.
"That's the $64 question," said Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of the NAS committee, who was also on the phone call with the White House. "Does antibody level equate to resistance to getting ill again?"

Ever get two colds during your life?  During the year?

Are you immune?
We all know how well Bill Gates was able to prevent viruses on Microsoft Windows.


And here it would seem we are spending some $27 Billion out of the $2 Trillion aid package to cure the incurable corona virus common cold.

None of this smells right....

Saturday, April 4, 2020

Coronavirus: Saving Lives From Medical Errors

There are many reports (here's one) now of empty hospitals, ERs, and ICUs right along with health care layoffs in the midst of this pandemic.

Isn't this a problem?

I wondered so I looked up how many people medical errors kill each year here: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

About 250,000 here in the USA per year.

So if we divide 250,000 by 365 days in a year we see this is about 684 people, A DAY...

Killed by mistakes in the medical profession.

So if the Coronavirus/COVID-19 empties out the hospitals, gets health care workers laid off and eliminates most doctor visits it would seem that Coronavirus/COVID-19 would need to kill 684 people each day before it overtakes the lack of deaths caused by the medical profession...

But it doesn't.

According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ I would estimate that 8,500 people were killed by COVID-19 in the last thirty (30) days...

Or about 283 people per day.

Which is far less than 684.

So COVID-19 must be saving lives?

Net deaths have probably decreased (the green area in the above chart).

Yet we are locked up like prisoners...

Even though fewer people are probably dying...?

Does anyone else see something wrong here?


Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Coronavirus FUD Medicians: Lies, Incompetence, Stupidity, Cover-ups

Chicken Little: "The Sky is Falling!"
There is so much now coming out about this.

FUD: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt...

You: Cowering at home because grandma will die if Joe Schmoe a hundred miles away goes to Walmart to buy cat food...

First off here's some old news from Italy via Bloomberg (back on March 18, 2020 - bet you wouldn't here this on CNN...)



"The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. [my underline]"

Everyone else was old, had other diseases.

I hate to say it but A) you are going to die at some point and B) if you susceptible to this sort of thing  then modern medicine has no hope for you...

But now you have no job, no hope, nothing cause daddy gubment knows going out to the bar is bad.

Back to Italy: So we add "corona virus" as a "co-morbidity" factor and viola - an epidemic...

Next up from Harvard: "Harvard Study Finds COVID-19 Fatality Rate Far Lower Than World Health Org Suggests"

Down from 3.4% will die to "Older patients, defined in the paper, had an estimated 2.7 percent risk of dying from COVID-19. For those who were between the ages of 15 and 64, estimated risk of death was only 0.5 percent. ... For those ages 15-44, low and high estimates were 0.1 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively; those ages 45-64 had estimates of between 0.2 percent and 1.1 percent."

Couple this with the info from Italy and you start to see a pattern...

Next up from Dr. Fauci (who loves Hillary so much) in the "New England Journal of Medicine" we see "Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted
List of authors.
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.
... [ bottom of third paragraph, underline my own ] ...
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

No reason for literally millions in the unemployment line.

Yet we are shut down for our own safety...  safety from what, exactly?

Chicken Little?

And finally a well respected MD on how China fucked up the Covid19 PCR genetic signature and basically reported genetic noise as the signature for all Covid19 tests:


So there you have it.

Pushing the pandemic Kicking the can down the road (last post here).

No one complains in Sweden because they've figured out that people who were going to die anyway are dying from what amounts to a bad flu, hence no panic.

No panicemic.

Is there some kind of flu going around?

Yes, of course.

There always is...

Likely it's a bit worse than normal but no reason to whip people to the point of absolute panic and fear...

SO USE COMMON SENSE!

(Don't look while the Medician tells you 200,000 will die of Corona Virus while, at the same time, Medicians kill that many a year with medical mistakes, errors, miss-prescribed drugs and the opioid crisis... Overall a pretty good slight of hand trick,)


Finally,  here's a guy with an 100% success rate on a cure: "This doctor was already treating patients with Trump’s ‘gift from God’ drug - before FDA approval"

OMG!

Without FDA approval!

Well Mr. FDA, how many fewer people would have died if we had all collectively put our heads together like this guy and figured shit out...  Using $20 US worth of off-the-shelf fifty year old medications.

Instead the Medicians create FUD: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

Coronavirus: No Benefit To Delaying a Pandemic

Mitigation is bullshit...

You don't go to the fight of your life and prolong your time in the ring.

This read tells the tail:


Same number dead either way.

That's not what you are being told.

And, to boot, you don't have an economy any more after the "lock down" so you get double hammered when you are down and out from the Corona.

The idiot medicians running all this are clueless.

They think it's better for things to go slow, to delay so no one gets overworked.

This is about you, not them.

It's not my responsibility to make sure somebody's "at risk" relative is safe.

If it was, then I would be responsible for 300,000,000 at-risk relatives.

You need to be responsible for yourself.




Coronavirus: Sweden's nearly Twice the US Death Rate...

According to this UK Guardian article Sweden, with nearly twice (see here) the US death rate muddles on without dramatic, rights-stealing "lock downs."  (Article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on)

"While every other country in Europe has been ordered into ever more stringent coronavirus lockdown, Sweden has remained the exception. Schools, kindergartens, bars, restaurants, ski resorts, sports clubs, hairdressers: all remain open, weeks after everything closed down in next door Denmark and Norway. [underline mine]"

How is this possible?

If you read the article you see the primary difference is there isn't any panic.

Still twenty four (24) Swedish people per million die (in the US it's fourteen (14) though more like eight (8) if you remove NYC metro.

Everyone seems to function okay and not panic...

(Panic: If you, Lone Wolf, go out in public you will kill my husband who has health problems... Huh?  What do I have to do with your husband?  I don't know you...  I'm not sick and even if I was how do you know it was me and not the guy who made me sick...???)

As with many western countries "... closing schools would have knocked out at least a quarter of doctors and nurses, crippling the health service. By pushing children out into society, it might even have increased the threat to the elderly, particularly if they were called upon to babysit."

(Another point: We've changed the distribution pattern for Covid19, not eliminated it...  Now everybody goes to Lowe's or Home Depot, Aldi's has to throw people out for "congregating," and so on...)

If we look at these charts (from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) we can understand why Swede's are okay.  First, from China, which is suspect to a degree but it's all the data we can point at today we see:


By and large this affects the elderly.  However, it is critical to note that "Again it’s important to stress that the CFR simply represents the ratio between the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths."

It's important to realize these number in and of themselves mean nothing because we don't know how many total cases there are.

(Another post will cover significant testing problems...)


You can estimate anywhere for five to ten times the number of cases are untested.  According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries we see that there not active cases per million column.

We see "active cases" but without knowing about the number of actual cases what can we say?

Not much.

Next we see:


If you are all ready sick Covid19 doesn't help...

Finally we see this type of chart:


Which is rather disingenuous.  On the left is US flu data for which, one presumes, there are adequate and accurate tests.  On the right you see Chinese data.

What can one conclude for this?

Not much really...  Certainly if you don't panic with Covid your society is just fine unless you destroy it from within as the US is...

One also imagines from reading the article that people are thoughtful and not careless (as they are in NYC...)

EDIT: Oh look, a call to honesty in modeling and "lock downs:"

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b